ECFR

A policy report by Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina of European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on the EU enlargement says that Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine has reenergised the enlargement debate. Most member states now see enlargement as a way to respond to the geopolitical reality and strengthen the EU in its immediate neighbourhood.

However, while the geopolitical arguments in favour of enlargement are even stronger today than they were 20 years ago, the process is likely to face more obstacles than it did back then.

In most member states, the interest in enlargement is outweighed by concerns about the transformation that institutional reforms could bring about. Possible changes in the EU’s balance of power, the unresolved issue of the protection of the rule of law, and bilateral conflicts are major obstacles.

The report says: “Given the geopolitical reality, time is of the essence, and the EU needs to offer a credible pathway to a deeper integration at least of the candidate countries in the next few years…Most importantly, the EU needs to agree on a roadmap of preparations for enlargement before the European Parliament elections in June 2024…The next MFF (2028-2034) should therefore be prepared for the inclusion of new countries. The EU needs to pursue the economic and financial preparations regardless of whether the institutional reform is successful or not. Otherwise, its offer will lack the necessary credibility and incentives for the candidate countries to adapt….Such an ‘Agenda 2030’ should be accompanied with an updated Copenhagen Criteria 3.0, including accession provisions such as aligning the candidate countries’ foreign policy with the main geostrategic direction of the EU.”

The full text of Catch-27: The contradictory thinking about enlargement in the EU by Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina, ECFR, published on 23 November 2023 is available here.