Clingendael Institute

27 February 2024

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has an enormous impact on the current and future security of Europe. This Clingendael Spectator series analyses how Europe’s relation with Ukraine and Russia will be affected. In the fourth episode, Clingendael expert Wouter Zweers reflects on the progress and obstacles in the accession journey of the ‘Eastern Trio’ (Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) towards the EU, as well as on the new enlargement dynamics in the EU.

The December 2023 European Council was exemplary for the uncertainties surrounding the process of joining the EU. As would be clear from the state of affairs in the Western Balkans countries, which have been knocking on the door for many years, becoming an EU member can be a lengthy and cumbersome process.

This article reflects on the progress and challenges in the accession paths of Ukraine and Moldova towards the EU and on the new enlargement dynamics in the EU after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. What are the barriers and opportunities for both the candidates and the European Union itself? Even though it is unlikely for both countries to escape some of the same unconstructive dynamics that continue to dominate the EU accession process of the Western Balkans, it remains crucial for the EU to keep its act together on Ukraine’s and Moldova’s accession processes.

The full text of the Clingendael Spectator article The Eastern Trio’s Path to the EU: Fast-Track or Slow Lane? is available here .