DGAP

28 May 2024

The latest analysis by Zoran Necev of DGAP says North Macedonia’s political landscape shifts as VMRO-DPMNE returns to power, highlighting the EU’s fading influence in this Balkan country and recent NATO member. Domestically, weak reforms and low public trust will challenge the new government. Internationally, it must navigate strained relations with Bulgaria while maintaining good ones with Greece, both of which are intertwined with the EU accession talks opened in 2020.

Thus, a new political landscape is emerging in North Macedonia, shaped by the EU’s diminished credibility in the Western Balkans. This exemplifies the limitations of enlargement policy, even in a country willing to make significant sacrifices, such as the historic name change, in hope of accelerated EU integration and the promise of membership. The EU’s subsequent unfulfilled promises, such as the one that signing the Prespa Agreement would pave the way for accession, and it not standing up to Bulgaria to prevent it from misusing the accession process while shifting responsibility through calls to solve a “bilateral issue,” have led to more obstacles and new blockages, mostly driven by EU domestic politics. 

This situation serves as a cautionary tale for other membership candidates and the EU institutions, emphasizing the need for urgent policy adjustments to restore the credibility of the enlargement process and to prevent further deterioration on a larger scale. The EU needs to understand the consequences of its decisions on North Macedonia and on regional stability. Russia and its propaganda channels could exploit EU failures with the country to spread negative narratives in other candidate countries in the Western Balkans to increase regional tensions.

You can find the full text of DGAP’s report North Macedonia’s Elections Exposed the EU’s Diminished Credibility in the Western Balkans here