Carnegie Europe

27 October 2024

In a new policy brief by Dimitar Bechev and Iliriana Gjoni of Carnegie Europe write that Serbia and North Macedonia are exploring alternatives to EU membership that would bring economic benefits and relieve them of accession-related demands. But their turn away from EU integration would disadvantage both the union and the Western Balkans.
The analysis says that EU enlargement in the Western Balkans is progressing on the surface, but underlying complexities cast doubt on the appeal of full membership. While countries in the region, such as Albania, Kosovo, and Serbia, signed a regional cooperation pact during the Berlin Process summit, some leaders are exploring alternatives to membership, aiming for economic ties without full EU demands. North Macedonia, initially an eager candidate, faces a stalemate as it resists amending its constitution per EU demands. This situation has strained its relationship with the EU, prompting its leaders to consider a path similar to Serbia’s, fostering close relations with select EU states while maintaining ties with other global powers like China and Russia.

For North Macedonia, rejecting EU membership could have serious implications, as past attempts to exist outside the EU orbit resulted in slow progress, domestic instability, and increased social divides. The region’s largest ethnic Albanian party, currently in opposition, has raised concerns that further delays could harm interethnic relations, especially if ethnic Albanian rights are compromised. Despite frustration, EU membership remains the most stable path for the Western Balkans, though continued impasses and alternatives pursued by leaders like Serbia’s President Vučić could risk weakening EU influence, fostering a regional divide that challenges European unity and stability.

You can find the full text of the policy brief All Is Not Well With EU Enlargement to the Western Balkans here