Clingendael Institute

This policy brief by Wouter Zweers and Milena Rossokhatska of Clingendael Institute assesses the EU response after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, examining how the EU can pursue a geopolitical approach to enlargement while upholding its transformative objectives.

The brief first offers a concise evaluation of the EU’s tools for bolstering democratic resilience and countering Russian influence in these countries. It contends that the EU possesses a comprehensive and effective array of instruments, despite Russia’s continued ability to exert ‘soft’ power. However, when analyzing the broader EU political approach toward these nations, negative consequences emerge from the current conversion of geopolitical imperatives into strategy and discourse.

Specifically, a lack of overarching firmness and confidence in the EU’s political approach toward the Western Balkans undermines the transformative potential of its impressive toolbox for the region. The brief concludes that by adopting a more assertive stance, adhering to its values, and employing negative conditionality alongside positive incentives, the EU can pursue a more effective geopolitical approach on transformative terms in the Western Balkans.

Towards an EU Geopolitical Approach on Transformative Terms in The Western Balkans by Wouter Zweers and Milena Rossokhatska,
Clingendael Institute, published on 2 February 2024 is available here