DGAP

In a commentary before the European Council December 2023 meeting, Milan Nic and Frauke Seebass of DGAP in Berlin, are writing about the prospects of EU enlargment and the threat of veto by Hungary’s leader Victor Orban over Ukraine.The commentary says:

“Clinically dead until the start of Russia’s full-scale war, the EU has revived its enlargement policy as part of its response to Russia’s military aggression. In Berlin and Paris, it is seen as part of the strategic adaptation to a new hostile environment in Europe. As German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock put it, “we can no longer afford any gray areas in Europe.” With revisionist Russia in the EU’s eastern neighborhood, “gray zones” are becoming conflict zones—and potential war zones as the example of Nagorno-Karabakh tragically demonstrates, where Azerbaijan’s military forced tens of thousands of Armenians to flee this fall.”

“For Germany and others, enlargement is now an issue of European and national security. The revival of the EU’s enlargement instrument is thus closely linked to Ukraine, Moldova, and potentially also Georgia (which the European Commission proposed to give EU candidate status). While lacking a similar security dimension, it is also a strategic opportunity to unlock the Western Balkans and after years of stagnation, open for them a way forward. Conversely, were Ukraine’s and Moldova’s aspirations now blocked, this would likely reinforce stagnation across the Western Balkan candidate countries, namely Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.”

The full text of Will Deadlock over Ukraine Kill the EU Enlargement Momentum? by Milan Nic and Frauke Seebass, DGAP, published on 13 December 2023 in Internationale Politik Quarterly, is available here.