28.02.2025

Jacques Delors Institute

The study by the Jacques Delors Institute and partner think tanks examines the EU budgetary implications of the accession of all enlargement countries except Türkiye. The focus is on the direct budgetary costs resulting from either the accession of new Member States or pre-accession support. Other potential benefits resulting from new accessions – in terms of security, greater market opportunities and reduced import dependency – are excluded from the analysis.

The study outlines three scenarios of enlargement for the next MFF:
If enlargement takes place during the next MFF, evolving trends in population and income per capita could affect eligibility for CP funding. Against this background, the study explores the implications of three alternative enlargement scenarios for the next MFF:
(1) a ‘gradual integration’ scenario, which assumes no accessions during the next MFF but the
maintenance of a credible EU commitment to enlargement (with commensurate support in the
form of pre-accession assistance);
(2) a ‘small bang’ scenario, which would see the six Western Balkan (WB) countries joining the
Union by 2030 and;
(3) a ‘big bang’ scenario, which includes Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

It analyzes past budgetary adjustments, estimates costs under different enlargement scenarios, and provides policy recommendations. The study finds that future enlargements will not drastically increase the EU budget but will require significant adjustments, particularly in Cohesion Policy (CP) and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). It highlights the “statistical effect,” where current Member States could see reductions in CP funding, and suggests that maintaining CAP Pillar 1 at current levels could necessitate cuts for existing members. Three enlargement scenarios are explored: a “gradual integration” with no new accessions before 2034, a “small bang” scenario with Western Balkan countries joining by 2030, and a “big bang” scenario including Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The findings indicate that the costs of enlargement are manageable if properly anticipated, but immediate CAP access for new members could require funding reallocations.

To adapt the next MFF for enlargement, the study recommends maintaining pre-accession support, particularly for Ukraine and the Western Balkans, and ensuring funds are linked to reform efforts. It stresses the need to counter unsubstantiated claims about enlargement costs by providing clear budgetary impact assessments. The EU should consider lifting the 2.3% GDP cap on cohesion funds for new members and initiating a debate on CAP reform, including transitional arrangements or alternative allocation principles. Additionally, the study suggests maintaining flexibility in the MFF to accommodate possible enlargements, potentially including a reserve for accession-related costs. While full enlargement by 2034 is unlikely, geopolitical developments could accelerate the process, making financial preparedness essential.

The study “Adapting the EU budget to make it fit for the purpose of future enlargements” by By Eulalia RUBIO, Cinzia ALCIDI, Romy HANSUM, Tina AKHVLEDIANI, Iain BEGG, Johannes LINDNER & Benjamin COUTEAU can be found here