DGAP

20 February 2024

How Serbia’s recent elections were conducted further disqualifies the country from future EU membership and undermines the credibility of revived EU enlargement. Ahead of the new EU policy cycle in Brussels, Germany needs to prepare a plan B toward Belgrade.

This memo by Frauke Seebass of DGAP examines the recent snap parliamentary elections in Serbia, held amidst allegations of manipulation and fraud. Despite these concerns, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) led by President Aleksandar Vučić secured a larger-than-expected victory. The European Parliament passed a resolution calling for an independent investigation into the election proceedings and urged the EU Commission to send its own expert mission to assess the situation. However, there has been limited policy action in response to the irregularities, and the opposition’s appeal to annul the election results faces significant obstacles.

President Vučić’s tactics, including frequent snap elections and control over the media, have raised criticisms of democratic erosion and the fostering of a culture of violence. Despite efforts by the opposition, such as the formation of the “Serbia Against Violence” alliance, challenges persist in countering Vučić’s influence. The memo underscores the need for a more assertive approach from the EU, suggesting potential suspension of accession negotiations if Serbia fails to meet key democratic standards. Additionally, there is a call for support for local demands for the annulment of the Belgrade elections and a firmer stance against democratic backsliding.

In light of rising far-right movements in Europe and Vučić’s alignment with Russia, the analysis emphasizes the urgency for Germany and the EU to take a firm stance on democratic standards in the accession process. It suggests that current EU dynamics, including debates on internal reform and enlargement, present an opportunity for a strategic shift in dealing with Serbia. By adopting a more proactive approach and addressing concerns of democratic erosion, the EU can play a crucial role in promoting stability and democratic transformation in Serbia and the wider region.

You can find the DGAP Serbia Has Crossed the EU’s Rubicon; Germany and Its Allies Must Respond available here