Carnegie Europe

30 April 2024

The opening of EU accession talks marks an important milestone for Bosnia, where ethnic tensions run high, writes Dimitar Bechev, a Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe.

The EU’s role in the region has been far from stellar, says the report. It has failed to broker a settlement of the Serbia-Kosovo dispute or prevent creeping authoritarianism across the region. For years, its enlargement policy was on life support. Russia and China exploited this vacuum.That changed with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Bosnia has become a beneficiary of the geopolitical reshuffle.

In December 2022, it was granted EU candidate status. A year later, the European Council decided to open talks should Bosnia fulfil eight benchmarks, including on the issues of the fight against corruption, judicial reform, and improving migration management.

As for Bosnia’s reform agenda, says Dimitar Bechev, it is piecemeal and could soon hit roadblocks. Even if a major outbreak of violence does not ensue, the country is suffering from chronic instability. That is why the EU should not drop the ball on Bosnia. It should push back against Dodik. And it should leverage the accession negotiations to encourage positive change at all levels of government.

You can find the full text of the Carnegie Europe report Polarization Threatens to Derail Bosnia’s EU Ambitions here