Carnegie Europe

6 June 2024

Being pro-EU does not win politicians many votes in the Western Balkans and the Caucasus writes Dimitar Bechev of Carnegie Europe. There, Viktor Orbán’s version of an illiberal Europe appears to be the union’s top-rated political export.

But while parties and elections in the EU are becoming Europeanized in the European Parliament elections 2024, says the author, the opposite trend—de-Europeanization—is visible in countries that are queueing to join the union. The past month has provided us with examples in both the Western Balkans and the EU’s Eastern neighborhood – with recent elections and events in Serbia, North Macedonia and Georgia are indicative.

Orbanization rather than EU-ization is the trend in Georgia, another membership hopeful, too. The governing Georgian Dream party has defied pro-Western protests, pressure from the EU alongside a veto by President Salome Zorabichvili and went ahead in adopting a Russia-style “foreign agents” law threatening to clampdown on civil society. Shockingly, parliament toughened the restrictions between the second and third reading of the bill, ignoring EU pleas.

This electoral cycle will no doubt furnish proof that the EU is contested internally, says the analysis. Yet the trend toward deeper integration is clear too. Outside EU borders, however, there is the opposite move. More and more countries are cherry-picking the bits of Europe they like—market integration, trade, investment—and ignoring the ones they do not, including liberal democracy and the rule of law.

Being pro-EU does not seem to win many votes in the Western Balkans and Georgia. Worse still, the slow pace of enlargement reinforces state capture and erodes the union’s appeal. Orbán’s version of Europe appears to be the EU’s top-rated political export these days.

You can find the full text of Carnegie Europe’s report De-Europeanization in the EU’s Neighborhood here.