January 23, 2026.

Published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in January 2026, this publication examines Montenegro’s prospects for accession to the European Union. It analyses the key factors likely to influence this accession, including geopolitical developments related to the war in Ukraine, internal debates within the European Union and the positions of the most influential member states. Montenegro is presented as the most advanced candidate country in the Western Balkans and as a test of the credibility of European enlargement policy.

It emphasises that enlargement no longer depends exclusively on the progress made by candidate countries, but also on the political decisions of the European Union’s member states. In this context, Montenegro must not only complete the required reforms and handle the significant administrative burden associated with closing the negotiation chapters, but also build trust with European countries by demonstrating its “political compatibility with the mature democracies” of the Union.

Its accession is presented as a strong signal to the entire Western Balkans, likely to strengthen the credibility of the European enlargement policy and encourage other candidate states to continue their reforms.

You can read the external publication “This Year Will Decide Montenegro’s Accession to the EU” by Nikola Xaviereff, published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in January 2026, here.