February 16, 2026.

Published by the Clingendael Institute in February 2026, this policy brief authored by Wouter Zweers and Sam de Vet analyzes the evolution of relations between Serbia and Russia in the political, economic, energy, security and societal spheres. The study shows that the traditional partnership based on the idea of “Slavic brotherhood” is gradually giving way to a more pragmatic and transactional relationship, marked by growing tensions over energy, arms sales and Belgrade’s geopolitical positioning.

Despite maintaining significant political and societal ties with Moscow, Serbia remains deeply integrated into the European economy and seeks to maintain a balance between Russia, the European Union and other actors such as China. However, against the context of the war in Ukraine and pro-democracy protests in Serbia, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. The document therefore emphasizes the need for the European Union to adopt a more coherent approach toward Belgrade, placing democratic criteria at the center of the enlargement process.

You can find the policy brief Serbia on a Sharpening Geopolitical Edge Between Russia and the European Union by Wouter Zweers and Sam de Vet here.