Jacques Delors Institute – Centre Grande Europe
Faced with the new geopolitical reality brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union must seriously reconsider the issue of furthering the enlargement process, in particular towards two groups of countries: the Western Balkans and the “Eastern trio”, namely Ukraine and Moldova (which already enjoy candidate status) and Georgia (for which only a “European perspective” is recognised).
The report says that the current EU accession model, proven successful in past enlargements such as the 2004 “big bang,” is deemed inadequate given the challenges faced today, particularly evident in the stalled progress of Western Balkan countries, except Croatia, even two decades after the Thessaloniki European Council’s pledge. The shortcomings of the “2004 model” raise questions about its applicability to the “Eastern trio” nations. Specific difficulties in the Western Balkans, including the post-Yugoslav legacies, prompted the EU to swiftly reassess its approach, reintroducing elements like the “stabilisation & reconciliation” aspect and the “regatta” approach. Unlike the relatively uniform progress seen in Central and Eastern European states, Western Balkan countries exhibit varying speeds of advancement, highlighting the need for a more flexible and tailored accession process.
The concept of “gradual accession” is gaining traction as a response to the stalled accession process for Balkan nations and has become increasingly prominent in political discourse. While similar ideas emerged during the 2004 enlargement, they were not widely discussed before or after. Recent developments, including proposals from Pierre Mirel and the CEP Belgrade in collaboration with CEPS Brussels, as well as initiatives like France’s non-paper in November 2019 and the European Stability Initiative’s proposal for a two-stage integration process starting with single market entry, highlight the shift towards this approach. Ukraine’s application has further propelled these ideas into high-level political discussions.
The full text of the policy paper Advocating gradual accession to the European Union by Lukas Macek, Jacques Delors Institute – Centre Grande Europe, May 2023 is available here.
